It is troublesome that television currency is still derived from generic demographics. Especially so in the digital age where behavioral targeting has taken data mining to new heights. Purchase behavior data is critical but perhaps not as important as the consumer position within the purchase cycle.
Today's economy has dramatically reduced purchase frequency, lengthening the cycle and making it more difficult to find real purchase intenders. When the average consumer was consistently buying a new car every 3.5 years, registration (purchase) data enabled us to find intenders relatively easily. Media choices could be qualified by their ability to reach those who plan to buy or lease a new car/truck in the next 6 months. Even syndicated ratings could be viewed through this prism and assumptions could be made regarding media ROI and even measured against share-of-voice/market share trend lines.
Historical data is now much less instructive and media ROI will be maximized only by those marketers who are savvy enough to understand how and why consumer behavior is changing in their category. Advertisers must be more willing to take risks because behavior patters will not stay the same for long. The best investors optimize asset allocation and aren't afraid to change course. Investing for media ROI today requires the same commitment.
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